Speaker
Description
The northeast monsoon (NEM) is an annual natural phenomenon in Malaysia, typically occurring from October to March. During this period, strong winds driven by two significant surges — the easterly surge and the meridional surge — bring heavy rainfall, often leading to severe flooding that can result in property damage and casualties. This study utilizes eight years of data (2011–2018) from International Monitoring System stations (IMS) alongside the Trans-equatorial technique to forecast the occurrence of NEM in Malaysia. A statistical approach incorporating data normalization and smoothing techniques was also evaluated to identify patterns in Be-7 measurements, which were then used as a reference for predicting the onset and withdrawal of the monsoon. By integrating IMS data with advanced processing techniques, the withdrawal of NEM in Malaysia was predicted with an accuracy of 341 days and a forecast horizon of ±7 days, achieving a correlation of 85%. However, the results for monsoon onset were less promising, indicating the need for further improvements to enhance forecasting accuracy. Although a strong correlation was observed for monsoon withdrawal, additional testing with more recent NEM seasons suggests that refinements are still required, particularly for improving monsoon onset predictions.
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