Speaker
Description
North Africa, which includes Egypt, Libya, Tunisia, Algeria, and Morocco, stretches from the Red Sea and Gulf of Aqaba in the east to the Atlantic Ocean in the west. This current study updates the seismic hazard evaluation for North Africa by applying a probabilistic approach. It uses an earthquake catalogue from 112 BC to 2024 AD and a seismotectonic model to assess seismic activity. The analysis accounts for uncertainties in parameters such as declustering, minimum magnitude, and ground-motion prediction using a logic-tree framework. Seismic hazard is calculated for a 0.5x0.5 grid, considering rock types and spectral accelerations at different time periods (0.2s, 1.0s, and 2.0s) and peak ground acceleration (PGA). The hazard is calculated for two return periods: 475 years (10%) and 2475 years (2%) probability of exceedance of 50 years. The uniform percentile hazards spectra and deaggregation charts are plotted. The highest PGA values are found in northeastern Egypt, near the Gulf of Aqaba (up to 0.27g) and near Aswan (up to 0.18g) for a 475 year. Morocco experiences a PGA of up to 0.12g, while Algeria, Libya and Tunisia have PGA value less than 0.1g. We also use a strong motion catalog to estimate PGA across the region.
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