Speaker
Description
This research aims to create realistic earthquake scenarios for the expected Main Marmara Fault Earthquake and develop Peak Ground Velocity (PGV) maps using physics-based approaches to protect ~20 million inhabitants in the Istanbul Metropolitan and its surroundings. In this study, a new 3-D dynamic simulation scenario for the expected M≥7.0 earthquake in the Sea of Marmara, incorporates stress perturbations from the 1912 Ganos and 1999 Izmit earthquakes, along with interseismic stress accumulation from historical earthquakes, geodetic rates and heterogeneous coupling, is generated. The pre-stress distribution forms the basis to simulate dynamic ruptures, highlighting the importance of consideration of stress heterogeneities. To calculate incoming stresses from the 1912 and 1999 earthquakes, a 3-D quasi-static simulation is generated for a master scenario and simulated stresses are added to the interseismic stress load for the dynamic rupture simulation. The resulting dynamic simulation shows a ~50 cm increase in maximum slip in the Central and Eastern Marmara, corresponding to a 0.1 magnitude unit increase, with PGV contour extensions. Future work will incorporate soil amplifications and a 3-D crustal structure to enhance simulations and create intensity maps. In addition, International Monitoring System seismic data will be used due to limited observed data for future events.
| [email protected] |
