CTBT: Science and Technology Conference 2025 - SnT2025

Comparison of Belgian and Dutch results from inverse ATMs for the nuclear detonation case of NPE 2024

P2.3-682

Not scheduled

1h

Zeremoniensaal

E-poster T2.3 Atmospheric and Subsurface Radionuclide Background and Dispersion P2.3 Atmospheric and Subsurface Radionuclide Background and Dispersion

Speaker

Michiel Bode (National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), The Netherlands)

Description

In case of an underground nuclear explosion (UNE), the waveform component of the International Monitoring System (IMS) that is being established by the Preparatory Commission of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty allows for the determination of the location and timing of the event. To confirm the nuclear character of any UNE, the radionuclide component of the IMS searches for traces of radioactivity in the air. If relevant radionuclides are detected, atmospheric transport modelling can be used to potentially link these detections with the event of interest. In the framework of the National Data Centre Preparedness Exercise 2024, the Dutch and Belgian National Data Centres will present and compare their methods for linking radionuclide observations with a (fictitious) event of interest. It involves the use of SHERLOC (Dutch) on one hand, and IFS+FLEXPART and FREAR (Belgian) on the other hand. We will show the results of both methods and their comparison, both in terms of the atmospheric transport modelling part and in terms of the inverse modelling part. We aim to understand the origin of differences in the analyses, as this could allow us to identify which parts of the methodology could be improved.