Speaker
Description
One of important challenges the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO) has been facing is to put an error bar on its atmospheric transport modelling (ATM) simulations. A well-established approach to address this question by the meteorological community is to run, for a given date, multiple simulations. These simulations constitute an ensemble, whose instances, or members, differ in such a way that the differences are representative of underlying meteorological uncertainty. Awaiting implementation of such an ensemble-based ATM system at the CTBTO, we propose to investigate a simple initial comparison. In fact, for many years, the CTBTO has been producing two instances of source-receptor sensitivity (SRS) fields using two sources of input meteorological data, namely, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction. In this presentation we look into differences between these two instances of SRS fields in view of assessment of uncertainty in the ATM but also in our future derived products, essentially background characterization and probabilistic radionuclide source location.
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