28 June 2021 to 2 July 2021
Europe/Vienna timezone

Assessing convection schemes sensitivity for predict Congo Basin future drought severity

29 Jun 2021, 09:00


e-Poster T1.1 - The Atmosphere and its Dynamic T1.1 e-poster session


Mr Steve Yvan Nono Noutchie (University of Yaounde, Yaounde, Cameroon)


This paper investigates the sensitivity of two cumulous convection schemes – Grell and Emmanuel – under RCP8.5 scenario drought severity over Congo Basin (CB). The analysis were conducted using a multiscalar drought indices, standardized precipitation index (SPI) for several time scale –3,6,12,24,48 months –during the decades 2021-2030 ; 2031-2040 ; 2051-2060, and 2071-2080. The results reveal that under condition “SPI < -1” Grell’s model – maximum CB grid points average rate of 17.1 months per decade (mth/dec) – presents severe droughts duration trends in CB grid points coordinates different to that of Emmanuel – with maximum CB grid points average rate of 18.3 mth/dec. Thereafter, under the condition “SPI < -2”, the intensification of droughts in Emmanuel’s model evolves gradually with a scale of duration by grid points less stable and more extensive – 6.5 mth/ dec – towards the southern part of CB, while the Grell’s model spreads randomly and less widespread over the CB area with a more stable and reduced duration in maximum average rate of 3.9 mth/ dec.

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Primary authors

Mr Steve Yvan Nono Noutchie (University of Yaounde, Yaounde, Cameroon) Mr Romeo Chamani (University of Yaounde, Yaounde, Cameroon)

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